NFL Week 1 picks Patriots pound Chiefs in opener Chargers upset Broncos

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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Year 5 of my NFL picks.This column has now outlasted any relationship I've ever been in and NFL career, which are both kind of surprising, but for different reasons. This thing started way back in 2013 when CBS gave me a typewriter and told me to make some picks. Of course, I have no idea how a typewriter even works, so the first week was kind of a struggle.Since then, though, things have gone much smoother.Here's a quick synopsis of how the past four years have gone: I've picked the to lose pretty much every game they've played, I've mentioned Justin Bieber's name way more than I should probably admit, I've upgraded my typewriter to a laptop and I've drank so much coffee that Starbucks would probably file a mi sing persons report if I didn't show up every Monday to grab my weekly Pumpkin Spice Latte.Anyway, let's move on to something else because the last thing anyone wants to talk about ever is another person's Pumpkin Spice Latte. Since this is the first week of the season, we're going to do my favorite Week 1 exercise, which is handing out the award to the team that had the craziest offseason. There was only one nominee this year and that nominee was the .Someone clearly hit the crazy switch on the Patriots' offseason after they won Super Bowl LI, because nothing was normal after that. If you need a brief reminder of everything that happened this offseason, here's a quick refresher: Super Bowl jersey (and then recovered after an international manhunt)Bill Belichick quit coaching for three days and Brady skipped to visit his "good friend" Donald Trump at the White HouseRobert Kraft might or might not have felt bad , so he gave Trump a Super Bowl ringBrady might or might not in 2016, according to his wife Gisele went Brady went to China and Brady wrote a book and Brady sumo-wrestled Kraft bought as fun as buying oneThere were actual GOATS at Patriots training camp The team ran out of space for it fifth Super Bowl banner so it of Gillette Stadium to fit moreBrady jinxed himself by agreeing to be on the Madden coverAlso, the Patriots traded for , then lost for the season, and I'm pretty sure this entire list only covers about half of everything.Not to mention, I didn't even get to bring up the fact that Instagram , and if Garoppolo's getting hacked, then no one's safe. What does it mean? Pete Prisco (@PriscoCBS) Jimmy Garoppolo's agent, Don Yee: "Jimmy's social media account was hacked." Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) If this had been Brady's Instagram, the hacker would have been arrested 41 minutes later and sentenced to 97 years in a federal prison. However, since it was Garoppolo's, everyone stopped caring about two hours after it happened and we all quickly moved on with life. If this crazy offseason had happened to any other team, I would probably predict a 4-12 season for them, but it doesn't work that way with the Patriots. If any team can overcome a completely crazy offseason to win the Super Bowl, it's the Patriots, which Udoka Azubuike Jersey is probably why three of our NFL writers are picking them to win it all this year.So who am I picking?That's a great question, and you can find and checking out our Super Bowl prediction page. That page consists of the divisional and Super Bowl picks from all seven of our NFL writers here at CBSSports.com.If you click through, the one thing you'll notice is that we all hate the in the AFC West and none of us could really agree on a Super Bowl champion. Division and Super Bowl predictions from . Apparently, no one likes the Raiders in the AFC West John Breech (@johnbreech) Now, before we get to my Week 1 picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every .OK, I think I've made you guys wait long enough, let's get to the picks.Week 1 PicksKansas City at New England, 8:30 p.m. ET (Thursday, NBC):The last time these two teams played during the opening week of the NFL season, in 2008, Tom Brady left the game with a knee injury. That injury turned out to be an ACL tear that ended his season, and I'm pretty sure that game still qualifies as one of the three darkest days in Ma sachusetts history.Now, I'm only mentioning this because Brady is basically a walking jinx right now. If you can think of a famous sports jinx, there's a 99.9 percent chance it's cursing Brady right now. jinx? Check. A new cover, just in time for . New England Patriots (@Patriots) "Madden" curse? Check.Tom Brady reacts to being the Cover Athlete for Madden 18. NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) Brady also breaks a mirror and walks under a ladder in that video, so by my count, we're up to at least four jinxes. I bet he also opened his eyes during the eclipse even though everyone said you're not supposed to.By the way, I'm not sure if jinxes cancel each other out, but for Brady's sake, I hope that's the case.Of course, a jinx might not matter for Thursday's game because Brady has been pretty much unbeatable at home during his Patriots career. Since 2007, Brady has gone 52-1 at home against AFC teams in the regular season. Not to mention, the Patriots, who will be hosting the NFL kickoff game for the fourth time Thursday, are 3-0 in Thursday openers. It's probably also worth noting that Bill Belichick is 5-1 all time against Andy Reid (including the playoffs), with Belichick's only lo s coming in that famous "We're on to Cincinnati" game in 2014. The won that game 41-14 and I have a feeling Belichick is still bitter about it because he seems like a guy who would be bitter about a lo s like that for several years.Belichick will probably be le s bitter about the 2014 lo s if his team crushes the Chiefs on Thursday, and that's exactly what I think is going to happen.The pick: Patriots 31-17 over ChiefsOakland at Tenne see, 1 p.m. ET (Tony Romo debuts on CBS): This is actually my favorite game of the week, and I'm not just saying that because it's on my favorite network, CBS (Note Jeff Green Jersey : My second favorite network is the Oprah Winfrey Network). I'm not sure if this is my favorite game because I'm looking forward to the return of and (who both suffered ugly injuries last year) or because I'm half expecting to celebrate his first touchdown with the Raiders by jumping into a bathtub full of Skittles. And don't tell me a Skittles bathtub can't be done because this girl did it. The good news for Carr and Mariota is that they're about to go up against two equally atrocious secondaries in this game. If the Raiders or are half as bad as they were last year at stopping the pa s, this could turn into the highest-scoring game of Week 1.The one weird question about this game that I didn't think we would be asking this week is: Who will be the Raiders' kicker on Sunday? If there's one person in the NFL who I would never want to upset, that person is definitely . I'm pretty sure he has never lost a bar fight in his entire life, so making him upset seems like a horrible idea for anyone. Apparently, the Raiders didn't get that memo because they want him to take a pay cut, and I'm gue sing that request probably upset Janikowski, because, well, who doesn't get mad when their bo s asks them to take a pay cut? If Sebastian Janikowski remains on Raiders' roster by 4 pm EST Saturday, as notes, his $4M deal becomes guaranteed. Sat showdown Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) Getting in a feud with your kicker with le s than a week to go until your season opener is pretty much No. 1 on the list of things an NFL team should never do, but here we are.No wonder Tom Hanks has already given up on the Raiders this year. Raiders fan Tom Hanks explains when and why he's giving up on the NFL for two years Pedro Espinoza (@pjet1976) Anyway, thanks to this kicker drama, it's pretty clear how all of this is going to play out: The Raiders are going to lose by a field goal. The pick: Titans 34-31 over RaidersSeattle at Green Bay, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox): Apparently, Pete Carroll's master plan this year is to turn the defense into the 1985 , and the scary thing is that I think it's working. Just when you thought the Seahawks defense couldn't get any better, they former defensive lineman , which is good news for Sheldon Richardson because he'll now be playing for a team that actually knows how to use him.The problem for the Seahawks and their super defense is that they'll be playing a quarterback this week who can get himself out of pretty much any jam, and I'm not just talking about on-the-field stuff, I'm also talking about major plumbing mishaps. Quarterback by day, mechanic by night. Thanks for fixing our sink Sam Dekker (@dekker) Clearly, ' plan is to throw the kitchen sink at the Seahawks defense this week, and I'm fully expecting it to work. Carroll has done a lot of impre sive things during his seven seasons as coach of the Seahawks, but one thing he hasn't done is win a game at Lambeau Field. In two games at Lambeau under Carroll, the Seahawks are 0-2 and have been outscored 65-27.The pick: 27-24 over Seahawks. at Dallas, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC): After looking at all the negative things that have happened to the this offseason, my only theory is that Jerry Jones must have somehow upset the Pope when he visited the Vatican in June. Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones met with Pope Francis at the Vatican on Wednesday GB REDZONE (@GBREDZONE) I mean, look at the Pope, he totally didn't want that No. 1 jersey. I'm gue sing he wanted No. 4 because the first three spots on the Vatican football team are reserved for the Father John Stockton Jersey , Son and Holy Spirit. Jones clearly blew it, and now 2017 has turned into an offseason from hell for the Cowboys. Not only are defensive ends , and all suspended for Sunday's game, but the Cowboys might also be mi sing . Fortunately for the Cowboys, there is some good news here: They might not need Elliott because after watching the Giants' offense play this preseason, I'm not sure they're going to score any points all season, and I think is starting to realize that, too. Brandon Marshall is asked if Eli Manning is best QB he's played with. "He has a long way to go to dethrone Ryan Fitzpatrick. Well see." Tom Rock (@TomRock_Newsday) That being said, as bad as the Giants' offense has looked, the Cowboys defense might actually be worse, so I'm going to take the Cowboys in a shootout and hope that the Pope also picks them.The pick: Cowboys 30-27 over GiantsL.A. at Denver, 10:20 p.m. ET (ESPN): If I learned one thing over Labor Day weekend, it's that no one likes the Chargers more this year than my CBSSports.com colleague, Will Brinson. I'm not sure how much Brinson drank over Labor Day weekend, but it was enough to make him pick the Chargers to go to the Super Bowl this year. You wanna get nuts? Let's get nuts. Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) I also had a drink or two over Labor Day weekend, and now I'm starting to sound like Brinson, because I definitely talked myself into a Chargers win over the .I hate picking against the Broncos at home, and I really hate picking against the Broncos at home in prime time, and I really, really hate picking against the Broncos at home in a prime-time season opener, but I'm going to do it, and I blame new Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy.Before going to Denver this year, McCoy spent the the past four seasons with the Chargers, which means the Chargers defense knows his stuff inside and out. Also, if your quarterback situation is so desperate that you have to sign , I can't pick your team out of principle.The Broncos signed Osweiler to a one-year, $775,000 deal this week, and the thing is, they kind of overpaid for him because, apparently, he was wiling to play for a dollar. Osweiler: "I told my agency... if there's an offer from Denver, I don't care if it's a dollar, that's where I'm going." Grayson Allen Jersey Ryan Koenigsberg (@RyanKoenigsberg) If you're crunching numbers at home, Osweiler will make $775,000 from the Broncos this year and $15,225,000 from the .The pick: Chargers 19-16 over BroncosIf the Chargers do win by a field goal, let's hope it's because their new placekicker hits a winning trick-shot kick. Younghoe Koo (@YounghoeKoo) You probably shouldn't try that at home.Your quarterback is way too injured for me to pick your teamBaltimore at Cincinnati, 1 p.m. ET (CBS): If this was a playoff game, obviously I would pick the to lose, but this isn't a playoff game, which means they might actually win. The big advantage for the Bengals here is that no one seems to know how healthy is at this point after dealing with a sore back for the past six weeks. Flacco is definitely going to play, but we don't know if that means he's 100 percent or 85 percent or even 70 percent.If he's 70 percent or lower, that would basically take him down to Blake Bortles-level quarterbacking, which would be good news for the Bengals.On the other hand, even if he's only 70 percent, Flacco will arguably still be one of the healthiest players on the team. The have lost seven players for the season due to injury already, and we haven't even reached Week 1. That list includes starting left guard (shoulder), running back (knee), tight end (hip), cornerback (knee), tight end Crockett Gilmore (knee), offensive lineman (knee) and receiver-returner (thumb).They also lost offensive lineman , who retired so he could pursue a PhD in math from MIT. I'm gue sing his plan is to use that degree to mathematically figure out once and for all whether Flacco is actually elite.The pick: Bengals 24-21 over RavensIndianapolis at L.A. , 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS): If we learned one thing about the this offseason, it's that I'm pretty sure their front office is being run by an orangutan. I mean, how else do you explain the fact that the team let an orangutan the NFL Draft. The Colts were like "Ok Browns, we see your "Homele s Guy says draft Manziel" & raise you a "orangutan says to draft Zach Banner" Kevin Jones (@HumanKevinJones) At first, I thought the whole thing was just for show, but now I'm fully convinced that the orangutan is the de facto GM in Indy because that's the only way to explain how the Colts could have po sibly thought it was a good idea to go into the season with as their Week 1 starter. At this point, I think the orangutan is the only one who actually knows when is because no one in Indy seems to know what's going on.My prediction? Luck doesn't return until Week 5 at the earliest, and the Colts lose all their games until then, including this one. I feel like might actually show up and play for free this week just because he knows there's at least a 50 percent chance he sacks Scott Tolzien 11 or more times.The pick: Rams 16-13 over ColtsCarolina at San Francisco, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox): With Luck hogging all the quarterback injury headlines this preseason, it was easy to forget that also spent most of the offseason recovering from an injury. Newton, who had surgery on a partially torn rotator cuff in March, threw exactly two pa ses this preseason. If I can count the number of pa ses you threw during the entire preseason on one hand, that's not a good thing.So will Cam be ready to play Sunday? Let's ask coach Ron Rivera. Rivera: "I think Cam is ready." Max Henson (@PanthersMax) Whenever I tell someone I "think" something, that usually means the opposite of the answer I just gave you.Friend: "John, are you coming to our party on Saturday?"Me: "I I'll be there."Also me: (I won't be there).Rivera only seems about 40 percent convinced that Newton will actually be effective Sunday. Of course, the were so bad last year that Newton at 40 percent probably could've beaten them, but I don't think that's the case this year thanks to new coach Kyle Shanahan and new quarterback .The last time we saw Hoyer and Shanahan together was in 2014 when Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for the Browns and Hoyer was his quarterback. During their time together, the Browns won seven games. Winning seven games in a single season in Cleveland is right up there with Belichick and Brady winning five Super Bowls as the most impre sive feat by a coach and quarterback combination of the past 20 years.The pick: 49ers 22-19 over PanthersWeek 1 picks: All the rest 24-13 over Jaguars 20-14 over Jets 30-17 over Bears 21-17 over Browns 24-20 over 20-17 over Bucs 33-30 over 25-22 over Last Week Best pick: This is the part where I usually tell you about my best pick, but since there weren't any regular-season games last week, that means there's no best pick for this section, so we're going to have to talk about something else, like how my summer went. You know what, I won't go into much detail, but I will say that it went Elijah Hughes Jersey better than because his kind of went off the rails.First, he got framed for a crime he didn't commit, then his dog got kidnapped, then he got cut by the Cowboys and now this. So that's why Dallas cut whitehead... Kirsten Fleming (@KirFlem) Although the Patriots won the team award for craziest offseason, Whitehead definitely wins the individual award.Worst pick: I almost made it this entire time without bringing up the fact that the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, but I'm going to bring it up now because my therapist said it will be healthy for Falcons fans if I talk about it as often as po sible. Sure, that sounds like horrible advice, but I'm not the therapist here.Ever since they blew that Super Bowl lead, things seem to have gotten worse for the Falcons. Not only did they go winle s in the preseason, but they pulled off the restaurant equivalent of blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl by letting Chick-Fil-A open a location inside their new stadium that won't even be open on Sundays.Overall record since 2013One thing you'll notice below is that I've somehow managed to get progre sively worse over the past four years. At the pace I'm currently on, there's a 50 percent chance I'm going to go 0-for-the-entire-season at some point in the very near future. Final 2016 regular-season record Straight up:147-107-2 Against the spread:116-129-11 Final 2015 regular-season record Straight up:152-104 Against the spread:126-130 Final 2014 regular-season record Straight up:164-91-1 Against the spread:125-131 Final 2013 regular-season record Straight up:165-90-1 Against the spread:124-132
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